Different mechanisms are responsible for underconfidence

As humans, we can underestimate ourselves, even when we perform just as well as others. Women and people with anxiety in particular are known to doubt their own choices – and this is due to two different mechanisms, according to new research.
Photo: Jon Tyson, Unsplash

New research shows

  • Doubts about one's own choices arise through different mechanisms in women and people with anxiety – two groups that are particularly known for doubting own decisions.
  • Anxiety: Self-confidence decreases the longer you reflect after making a decision.
  • Gender: Women are less confident than men immediately after making a decision, but the difference diminishes over time.
  • Recommendation: Quick assessments may be better for people with anxiety, while women may benefit from extra reflection.

We make a myriad of decisions every day, and the confidence we experience in those decisions affects how we act on those choices. But what actually causes us to doubt our decisions?

A new study shows that self-doubt arises in different ways, depending on whether you are a woman or a man and whether you are prone to anxiety or not.

‘Underconfidence is not a phenomenon with a single cause. People may end up with the same pattern of self-deprecation, but via completely different mental processes,’ says Sucharit Katyal, postdoc at the Department of Psychology, University of Copenhagen.

Together with Stephen M. Fleming (University College London), he is author of the study, which has been published in the scientific journal Psychological Medicine.

Two paths to doubt

The researchers analysed data from 1,447 people and developed a dynamic model of how self-confidence changes over time after one makes a decision. They conclude that anxiety and gender in particular affect self-confidence in opposite ways:

  • Anxiety: The more time a person with anxiety spends reflecting on their choices, the more their self-confidence declines. Negative thoughts accumulate and reinforce doubt.
  • Gender: Women are typically less confident than men immediately after making a decision – but the difference diminishes when they have time to think things over. Extra reflection can therefore help to overcome gender-related bias.

"For women, it can be beneficial to take time to consider major decisions. For people with anxiety, on the other hand, it is better to trust your first instinct," explains Sucharit Katyal.

What the researchers did

Four large data sets: The researchers analysed data from 1,447 people who completed tasks online. After each task, participants were asked to indicate how confident they were in their answers.

Anxiety and gender: Participants completed questionnaires about anxiety symptoms and disclosed their gender.

Time as a key factor: The researchers looked at how long people spent assessing their own confidence after making a decision – and how the amount of time affected self-doubt.

Advanced computer model: The researchers used a mathematical model that simulates how we gather evidence to prove we are right, both before and after making a decision. The model can show:

  • Whether you become more or less confident when you think longer.
  • Whether low self-confidence is due to negative thoughts over time (as with

New knowledge can improve guidance

The study suggests that we should tailor interventions to help the groups most prone to self-doubt:

For people with anxiety: Trust your first gut feeling – extra time can give rise to pointless self-criticism. For women: Take time to reflect – it can boost your self-confidence and make you more certain of your good choices.

‘By uncovering the mechanisms behind these biases, we can design targeted interventions. It's basically about interrupting negative self-assessments in people with anxiety – and promoting reflection to reduce gender differences,’ concludes Sucharit Katyal.

The study is entitled “Gender and Anxiety Reveal Distinct Computational Sources of Underconfidence”. It can be read here.

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